Highwater Labs is an AI lab working on human judgment in markets. We build software that helps people sharpen their decisions and remember their reasons.
HighwaterHighwater
Labs UTC
The idea
Investors have never had more information, and most of it has nothing to do with what they hold or why they hold it.
The difficulty sits at one moment: a story takes hold, and you have to work out what it means for you in particular. Months later there is a second one, when you try to remember honestly why you did what you did. We work on those two moments.
What we believe
01
Attention
Most of what reaches an investor in a day has nothing to do with what they own or what they believe. A view gets sharper when it keeps meeting the evidence that bears on it, and duller when that evidence is buried under everything else.
02
Memory
Hindsight edits. A judgment that was never written down gets quietly improved until there is nothing left to learn from it. Written down and dated, ideas compound: each one is there to be tested by the next thing that happens.
03
What follows, if
Everyone in a market has a view on what happens next. We work on the step after: if it does happen, what breaks first, for whom, and why.
We are an AI lab, and what we study is human judgment: how a person with their own money and their own life decides what to do in a market.
01
The moment of judgment
Investors today have more information than any professional had thirty years ago, and it hasn't made deciding much easier. The trouble tends to arrive at one moment. A headline lands, a story takes hold, and someone has to work out what it means for them in particular.
Almost nothing is built for that moment. We are building for it.
02
Attention
Most of what reaches an investor in a day has nothing to do with what they own or what they believe. The useful question about any piece of news is a narrow one: does it touch something I hold, or a reason I hold it?
A view gets sharper when it keeps meeting the evidence that bears on it. It gets duller when that evidence is buried under everything else, which is the normal condition of a news feed.
03
Memory
Ask anyone what they thought about interest rates two years ago and you will hear a tidier story than the one they lived. Hindsight edits. A judgment that was never written down gets quietly improved until there is nothing left to learn from it.
The lab is named after the fix that harbours use. The flood recedes, and the line it reached stays on the wall with the year cut beside it.
Kept that way, ideas compound. Each one is there to be tested by the next thing that happens, and the ones that survive are worth more than when they were written.
04
What follows, if
Everyone in a market has a view on what happens next, and a view is only the first half of a decision. The second half is working out what follows if it comes true. If rates stay where they are for another two years, what breaks first, for whom, and why?
A consequence worked through in advance can be checked later against what actually happened.
05
Where AI comes in
Models have made analysis nearly free. Anyone can have twenty pages on any stock before the kettle boils. That changes which part of the job is hard. It used to be finding out. Now it is holding a view for a reason, and noticing when the reason has gone.
We use AI on that side of the problem. It can read the day's news with your positions in mind. It can also be the colleague who asks what would change your mind, and remembers what you said in March.
06
Quiet
On most days an investor should do nothing, and a tool that respects that will be quiet on most days. We would like to build software you open less often than you expected to, and are glad of when you do.
07
The gauge
The gauge at the edge of this site works the way the name does. The water follows you down the page. If you scroll back up, a red mark stays at the furthest point you reached.
The lab does three kinds of work, and AI runs through all of them.
Research
We study how people actually decide: what they read, what they tell each other, and where a story turns into a trade. Alongside that we follow the academic work on judgment under uncertainty, and a lot of market history.
Research is written up as packages. Each one starts with a question, lists its evidence with sources and dates, and says plainly whether its conclusion has been tested or is still an argument.
Models
We build scenario models. A model starts from an assumption and works out what follows for one particular portfolio, which is a different question from what follows for the market in general.
The models are tested code. One command rebuilds every figure, so after any change we can see exactly which numbers moved.
Software
We design and build the product ourselves, and we work with AI models throughout: in research, in review and in the product. Much of the product work is about reading: getting the few things that matter to a person in front of them, and keeping what they concluded.
The design problem we keep returning to is how to show uncertainty on a screen without making it look more exact than it is.
How we work
Sources and dates
Every figure has a source and the date we read it. Numbers a company reports about itself are marked as self-reported.
Old versions stay
When a conclusion changes, the earlier one stays on file with the reason it changed.
A hostile read
Before we rely on a piece of work, it is read by someone, or something, whose only job is to break it. What they find is filed with the work.
These terms apply to your use of highwaterlabs.xyz (the "Site").
01About these terms
The Site is operated by Highwater Labs Limited ("Highwater Labs", "we", "us").
By using the Site you agree to these terms and to our privacy policy. If you don't agree, please don't use the Site.
02What the Site is
The Site describes our business. It is not a product or an account service, and no transaction of any kind can be made through it.
We may change, suspend or withdraw any part of the Site at any time without notice, and we don't promise that it will always be available.
03No advice, no reliance
Nothing on the Site is investment, financial, legal, tax or other professional advice. Nothing on it is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security or other asset, or a statement that any course of action is suitable for anyone.
Highwater Labs Limited is not a licensed investment adviser, broker or dealer. It holds no financial services licence, does not carry on any activity that requires one, and holds no client money or client assets.
Content on the Site is general information. It may be incomplete or out of date and we are not obliged to update it. Take your own professional advice before acting on anything you read here.
04No offer
Nothing on the Site is an offer, or a solicitation of an offer, to buy or sell any security or other instrument, or to provide any regulated service, in any jurisdiction where that would be unlawful or where we are not permitted to make it.
05Modelled material
Where the Site refers to modelled or scenario output, that material describes what follows from stated assumptions. It is not a forecast, a probability or an expected return. If an assumption is wrong, the output will be wrong.
06Intellectual property
The content of the Site, including its text, design, graphics and code, and the name "Highwater Labs", belongs to us or our licensors and is protected by copyright, trade mark and other laws.
You may view the Site and print or download extracts for your own internal, non-commercial reference, as long as you don't alter them and you keep any copyright notices. No other right or licence is granted.
The typefaces used on the Site (Archivo, Newsreader and IBM Plex Mono) are used under the SIL Open Font License 1.1 and belong to their authors.
07Acceptable use
You agree not to:
use the Site unlawfully or fraudulently;
try to gain unauthorised access to the Site or to any server, computer or database connected to it;
introduce anything malicious or technologically harmful; or
put an unreasonable load on our infrastructure, including by automated collection that ignores our robots.txt.
08Links to other sites
Where the Site links to other websites, the links are for convenience. We don't control those sites and are not responsible for their content or for any loss arising from your use of them.
09Disclaimer
The Site is provided "as is" and "as available". To the fullest extent permitted by law, we exclude all representations, warranties and conditions, express or implied, including as to accuracy, completeness, fitness for a particular purpose and uninterrupted availability.
10Limitation of liability
To the fullest extent permitted by law, we are not liable for any indirect or consequential loss, or for any loss of profit, revenue, business, goodwill, opportunity or data, arising from your use of the Site or reliance on its content, whether in contract, tort (including negligence), breach of statutory duty or otherwise.
Nothing in these terms excludes or limits liability that cannot lawfully be excluded or limited, including liability for death or personal injury caused by negligence, or for fraud.
11Changes
We may revise these terms by publishing a new version on this page with a new effective date. If you keep using the Site after that date, you accept the revised terms.
12General
If a court finds any part of these terms unenforceable, the rest stays in force. If we delay in enforcing a term, that is not a waiver of it.
13Governing law
These terms, and any dispute or claim arising from them or from your use of the Site (including non-contractual disputes), are governed by the laws of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region. The courts of Hong Kong have exclusive jurisdiction.
This policy explains how Highwater Labs Limited handles personal data in connection with highwaterlabs.xyz (the "Site").
01Who we are
Highwater Labs Limited is the data user responsible for personal data collected through the Site. "Data user" is the term used in Hong Kong's Personal Data (Privacy) Ordinance (Cap. 486) (the "Ordinance").
The Site sets no cookies, runs no analytics, carries no advertising and makes no third-party requests. Every font, stylesheet, script and image is served from this domain. There are no forms.
The only personal data we get through the Site is what our hosting provider records in standard server logs, and whatever you choose to put in an email to us.
03What we collect
Server logs
For each request our hosting provider records the IP address, the date and time, the path requested, the HTTP status, the referring page if one is sent, and the browser's user agent string. Every web server does this. We use the logs for security and to keep the Site running.
Email
If you write to us we receive your email address, your name if you give it, and whatever you put in the message, along with our reply.
We don't knowingly collect sensitive personal data through the Site. Please don't send any by unencrypted email.
04Why we use it
Log data: to detect and respond to abuse and keep the Site running.
Email: to answer you and keep a record of what was said.
Both: to meet legal and record-keeping obligations, and to establish, exercise or defend legal claims.
Under the Ordinance, we collect personal data only for these purposes and use it only for them or for a directly related purpose (Data Protection Principles 1 and 3). Where the EU or UK GDPR applies, we rely on our legitimate interests in running and securing the Site and in answering correspondence, and on legal obligation where one applies.
05Cookies and tracking
The Site sets no cookies and uses no local storage, analytics, advertising or social media tags, session recording or fingerprinting. That is why there is no cookie banner.
The water gauge at the edge of each page is drawn by a small script that runs in your browser. It reads how far you have scrolled, keeps that number in memory while the page is open, and sends nothing anywhere.
You can check all of this in your browser's developer tools. The Site makes no requests to any host other than highwaterlabs.xyz.
06Who we share it with
We don't sell personal data and we don't share it for advertising or marketing. We disclose it only to:
service providers who process it for us under contract, such as the companies that host the Site and run our email;
our professional advisers, where necessary and under a duty of confidentiality; and
a regulator, law enforcement agency or other third party where the law requires it, or where it is necessary to establish, exercise or defend legal claims.
07International transfers
Our service providers may process personal data in other countries, including the United States and the European Economic Area. Where they do, we take reasonable steps, including through our contracts with them, to make sure the data gets protection comparable to what the law requires.
08How long we keep it
Server logs: kept by our hosting provider for its standard period, normally no more than 30 days, unless we need a copy for longer to deal with a specific security incident.
Email: kept while the matter it concerns is live and for up to 24 months afterwards, unless a legal, regulatory or contractual obligation requires longer.
09Security
Access to systems holding personal data is limited to the people who need it and protected by multi-factor authentication, and the devices used to reach them are encrypted. No system is perfectly secure. We hold no security certification and don't claim to.
10Your rights
Under the Ordinance you can ask whether we hold personal data about you, ask for a copy, and ask us to correct anything inaccurate. The Ordinance allows us to charge a reasonable fee for a data access request. If we intend to, we will tell you the amount first.
Where the EU or UK GDPR applies to you, you may also have rights to erasure, restriction, portability and objection.
To use any of these rights, write to info@highwaterlabs.xyz. We may need to confirm your identity. We respond within the period the law requires, which under the Ordinance is 40 days from receiving a data access or correction request.
11Children
The Site is not aimed at children and we don't knowingly collect their personal data. If you think a child has sent us personal data, write to us and we will delete it.
12Changes
We may update this policy. The current version and its effective date are always on this page.
13Complaints
If you are unhappy with how we have handled your personal data or a request, please tell us first at info@highwaterlabs.xyz so we can try to fix it.
You can also complain to the Office of the Privacy Commissioner for Personal Data, Hong Kong. Where the GDPR applies to you, you can complain to the supervisory authority in your country.